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Methodology & Data Sources

How we calculate climate risk for every city on Earth

Overview

LocalClimateRisk.com provides climate projections for 48,000+ cities worldwide using publicly available climate data from leading scientific organizations. Our methodology combines historical climate data, IPCC climate models, and geographic risk factors to project future conditions.

Data Sources

🌡️ NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)

Used for: Historical temperature data, precipitation patterns, baseline climate conditions

Source: Climate Data Online (CDO)

Coverage: Global, updated regularly

🛰️ NASA Earth Data

Used for: Temperature anomalies, satellite observations, climate trends

Source: NASA Earthdata

Coverage: Global satellite observations since 1979

📊 IPCC AR6

Used for: Climate projections, emissions scenarios, regional impacts

Source: Sixth Assessment Report (2021-2023)

Scenario: We use the SSP2-4.5 "Middle of the Road" scenario (moderate emissions)

🗺️ OpenWeatherMap

Used for: Current baseline temperatures by location

Source: OpenWeatherMap API

Coverage: Real-time data for 200,000+ locations

Climate Score Calculation

The Overall Climate Score (0-100) is calculated by starting with 100 points and deducting points based on risk factors:

Score = 100 - (Wildfire Points + Flood Points + Drought Points + Geographic Points)

Wildfire Risk:
  • Low: 0 points
  • Medium: 10 points
  • High: 20 points
  • Severe: 30 points
    •
Flood Risk:
  • Low: 0 points
  • Medium: 10 points
  • High: 20 points
  • Severe: 30 points
Drought Risk:
  • Low: 0 points
  • Medium: 10 points
  • High: 20 points
  • Severe: 30 points
Geographic Factors:
  • Equatorial regions (|lat| < 10°): -10 points
  • Arctic regions (|lat| > 60°): -5 points

Final Score Interpretation:

  • 80-100: Low Risk - Minimal climate impacts expected
  • 60-79: Moderate Risk - Some adaptation measures needed
  • 40-59: High Risk - Significant climate challenges ahead
  • 0-39: Severe Risk - Major impacts likely, potential for uninhabitability

Temperature Projections

Temperature increases are calculated using:

  1. Baseline Temperature: Current average from OpenWeatherMap or estimated by latitude
  2. Global Warming Trend: ~0.3°C per decade (IPCC SSP2-4.5 scenario)
  3. Regional Adjustments: Arctic amplification (2x warming), urban heat island effects
Temperature Increase (year) = 0.03°C × (year - 2024)

Example for 2040:
= 0.03 × (2040 - 2024)
= 0.03 × 16
= 0.48°C increase

Risk Factor Determination

Wildfire Risk

High Risk Regions:

  • Mediterranean climates (California, Mediterranean basin, Australia)
  • Latitudes 30-50° with dry summers
  • Western US, Southern Europe, Australia

Methodology: Based on climate zone, historical fire patterns, temperature/precipitation trends

Flood Risk

High Risk Regions:

  • Coastal areas (sea level rise exposure)
  • Tropical regions (intense precipitation)
  • River deltas and low-lying areas

Methodology: Proximity to coast, latitude, precipitation patterns, elevation (where available)

Drought/Water Stress

High Risk Regions:

  • Subtropical zones (20-40° latitude)
  • Mediterranean climates
  • Continental interiors

Methodology: Climate zone classification, precipitation trends, evapotranspiration rates

Economic Impact Projections

Insurance Cost Increases

Insurance Multiplier = 1 + (years_from_now × 0.025)

Example for 2040 (16 years):
= 1 + (16 × 0.025)
= 1.40 (40% increase)

Based on: Historical insurance industry data, climate risk assessments, actuarial projections

Extreme Weather Days

Extreme Weather Days = 8 + (years_from_now × 1.2)

Example for 2040:
= 8 + (16 × 1.2)
= 27 days per year

Includes: Heat waves, severe storms, flooding events, cold snaps (where applicable)

Limitations & Caveats

⚠️ Important Notes

  • Projections, Not Predictions: Climate models show probable outcomes, not certainties
  • Moderate Scenario: Assumes SSP2-4.5; actual impacts depend on emissions trajectory
  • Local Variations: Microclimates and local factors can differ from regional projections
  • Generalized Risk: Site-specific assessments require detailed professional analysis
  • Data Limitations: Some smaller cities use estimated/interpolated data
  • Non-Climate Factors: Socioeconomic factors, infrastructure, and policy responses also matter

Updates & Revisions

Our methodology and data sources are regularly updated to reflect:

  • New IPCC assessment reports
  • Updated climate model projections
  • Observed climate trends (comparing projections to actual data)
  • Improved localized data availability

Last Updated: December 2024

Next Scheduled Review: June 2025 (or upon release of major new climate data)

Questions or Feedback?

We welcome questions about our methodology and suggestions for improvement.

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Disclaimer: This tool provides general climate risk information for educational purposes. It should not be used as the sole basis for property purchase, insurance, or investment decisions. Consult with climate scientists, insurance professionals, and local authorities for specific risk assessments.